Saturday, March 31, 2012

speculating

It amazes that so many people (like, practically all of them) buy into the idea that you need to intervene in a market in order for it to work correctly.

I guess they don't understand how markets work. But markets are just people and their behavior, so intervening with them is quite obviously just fucking with people. And fucking with people to make the world a better place seems like an absurd theory.

All it takes is a trip to your local farmers' market to see that there isn't a guy running around with a gun threatening to shoot people who don't do business a certain way. And obviously it wouldn't work very well if there was this guy, because violence doesn't promote good outcomes.

And violence still doesn't promote good outcomes (nor should it be regarded as morally decent) just because you put on a blue uniform and signed some papers and had a meeting in a fancy building before you did it. Lol. All that changed is people fell for the illusion and now they let you get away with it.

Eventually they'll learn, but in the meantime those of us who haven't been sucked into the matrix can take advantage of the chaos by speculating against the radical distortions it causes.

In a free economy, speculating for profit would be fairly useless. Because prices make sense, and corrections are fluid. You'd have to know something unique and rush to act on it before anyone else finds out. It'd be rare and tedious to find an edge. But in this economy, it isn't even difficult.

You just pay attention to what the criminals are doing. "Oh, they've convinced everyone to accept pieces of green paper as if they were money. I should buy things that work as real money and sell the paper." Easy game.

It's almost as if you outsource an element of genius to the people with the guns who have figured out how to convince a critical mass of the populace that up is down and left is right. Those of us who haven't been duped can simply sit back and speculate on common sense. It'd probably be way better to be able to grow companies and invest in a free economy, but so long as this violence exists, speculating against it at least dampens the blow.

And when you do this, you help keep the madness in check. I have a lot of respect for the passion behind, i.e., the Ron Paul campaigns. But I think it's a horrible waste of money, especially compared to how much good that money could have done by speculating. The interests who benefit from these distortions aren't ultimately threatened by a politician. Even if they don't like what he's saying, it's no guarantee that he's gonna solve anything. So I'm sure they like seeing that money drawn into the political process rather than working to end the distortions economically.

Personally I'm not rich or anything. Far from it. But I feel good knowing that the little bit of assets I do have isn't at the mercy of some guy's printing press or some other inanity that can't possibly sustain itself. I'd rather be invested in the solution than in the problem.

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